Answer :
The forecast for the next period using simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of .2 would be 65.5.
Simple exponential smoothing is a time series forecasting method that uses a weighted average of past observations to make a forecast. The weight given to each past observation is determined by the value of alpha, with larger values of alpha giving more weight to more recent observations. To calculate the forecast for the next period, we use the formula F_t = alpha * A_t-1 + (1 - alpha) * F_t-1, where A_t-1 is the actual demand in the previous period, and F_t-1 is the forecast for the previous period. Plugging in the given values, we get F_t = 0.2 * 69 + 0.8 * 64 = 13.8 + 51.2 = 65.5. Therefore, the forecast for the next period is 65.5.
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The forecast for the next period using simple exponential smoothing would be 65. So, the correct answer is 65.
In order to calculate the forecast for the next period using simple exponential smoothing, we would need to use the following formula:
Ft+1 = α(At) + (1-α)Ft
where:
Ft+1 = forecast for the next period
α = smoothing constant (in this case, α = 0.2)
At = actual demand for the current period (in this case, At = 69)
Ft = forecast for the current period (in this case, Ft = 64)
Using these values, we can plug them into the formula and solve for Ft+1:
Ft+1 = 0.2(69) + 0.8(64)
Ft+1 = 13.8 + 51.2
Ft+1 = 65
Therefore, the forecast for the next period using simple exponential smoothing would be 65. This forecast takes into account both the actual demand for the current period (69) and the previous forecast for the current period (64), and it uses a smoothing constant (α) to give more weight to recent data points. By using simple exponential smoothing, we can create more accurate forecasts that can help businesses make more informed decisions about production, inventory, and other important factors. So, the correct answer is 65.
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